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https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgWpsvtsd6Rqw3i9aMZewRw/join Have you ever thought of the probabilities in the Baccarat game seriously?
I’m sure most of you did.
I hope you try to take a different view of it this time.
[The hidden pitfall of probability 1]
We think our win rate is 50% mathematically.
However, the problem begins when the variable that we can choose between Player and Banker works.
For example, let’s assume that:
Since we are a player, we can only bet on Player, like a Blackjack. But we have a chance to change this every time.
Then, if we don’t change our minds, we bet on the player, and if we change our minds, we can bet on the banker.
The probability of the Player coming out and win is 50%. However, the moment when we think about whether to change it to Banker or not, the probability is reduced in half once more. And as a result, the probability decreases to 25%.
[The hidden pitfall of probability 2]
Let’s assume that we bet 1 unit each game.
If we lose 1 unit in the first bet, what is the probability of recovering it in the second bet?
If you could understand the previous, you would answer 25%.
Let’s assume that we’re losing 2 units this time. What is the probability of recovering?
Since we have to win 2 in a row, the probability drops to 6.25%(25% X 25%).
You may want to think that this is simply not the case. But various betting strategies are being developed to overcome this pitfall of probability.
For example, when we’re losing 2 units during betting 1 unit each game, betting 2 units at once increases the probability of recovering to 25%, not 6.25%.
Of course, since these betting strategies can be poison if abused, we need intense training.
[The hidden pitfall of probability 3]
No matter how much time we have before betting, the probability doesn’t change.
But the opposite case is different.
If there are only about 10 seconds or so before deciding to bet, there is not enough time to judge accurately, which increases the possibility of making a mistake or missing an opportunity.
We can’t calculate it numerically, but the probability of winning be getting lower.
It’s also one of the reasons I never recommend online games.
[Players pretty more disadvantageous to the hidden pitfall of probability]
1. players who play a very long time
2. players who bet consecutively without a pass
3. badly emotional players
4. players who lack patience
If you are not yet familiar with Baccarat, I recommend you give up on this game.
But if you can’t forget it, please learn and practice intensively.
Your opponent is not a person next to you, but a large group of capital allied around the world.
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